Overview
- An armed group closed a valve on the pipeline to the Zawiya export terminal, sharply cutting flows from the Sharara field and forcing most crude to be redirected to Mellitah port.
- Reported production at Sharara has fallen to about 127,000 barrels per day from a normal capacity near 300,000 barrels per day, raising the prospect of tighter supply if the shutdown continues.
- Libya’s National Oil Corporation warned the pipeline closure could lead it to declare force majeure and that a prolonged outage could stop production, disrupt exports, and threaten Zawiya refinery operations.
- Traders and prediction markets have reacted to the disruption, with a modest rise in the probability of a year‑end price spike and market participants awaiting any statements from OPEC or the IEA.
- Libya’s oil sector has a history of militia-driven interruptions, so observers say the key things to watch are efforts to reopen the pipeline, security at export terminals, and any operational limits at Mellitah that could affect domestic fuel supplies and state revenue.