Overview

• SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 remains in effect for central Kansas, with storms capable of 2-inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.
• SPC forecasters report a south-southeastward cluster of supercells maintaining intensity into the evening as a nocturnal low-level jet supports mesocyclones.
• WPC warns of warm-advection storms from south-central Kansas into north-central Oklahoma overnight, with short-term training that could produce 2–3 inches of rain and localized flash flooding.
• WPC says isolated flash flooding continues this evening across parts of Arizona, New Mexico and far southern Nevada, with 1 inch per hour rates occasionally impacting burn scars and low-lying areas.
• Forecast discussions cite unusually high precipitable water, weak steering flow and backbuilding convection as key factors sustaining heavy rainfall and runoff concerns.