Overview

• SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 612 from 3:05 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. CDT for northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, and western and central Nebraska with threats including hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts to 70 mph, and a low-end tornado risk.
• SPC mesoscale discussions reported multicells and transient supercells producing severe hail and pockets of damaging wind across western into central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, with the threat becoming more isolated overnight as instability wanes.
• Analyses highlighted MLCAPE commonly in the 1500–3000 J/kg range with pockets above 2500 J/kg, while weak deep-layer shear and outflow undercutting limited storm longevity and organization.
• WPC flagged training thunderstorms from northern Kansas into central and eastern Nebraska with 1–2 in/hr rates and additional 2–4 inches possible through 08Z, supporting areas of flash flooding.
• WPC also warned of heavy rain around a coastal low near southeastern Virginia and Maryland, noting flooding already near Norfolk and Virginia Beach with continued risk into the evening.