Overview

• Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening across central New Mexico, including the Rio Grande Valley, with potential for hail and damaging winds.
• Heavy downpours could trigger flash flooding, with the greatest risk focused on central and eastern parts of the state through Wednesday.
• A flood watch covers the Ruidoso area and nearby burn scars until 6:00 a.m. Wednesday because brief intense rain could produce rapid runoff and debris flows.
• At least one severe thunderstorm warning was issued southwest of Santa Rosa near Pastora, with quarter-sized hail and 60 mph gusts possible.
• Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta flight decisions hinge on a pilots’ briefing as surface winds remain light but stronger winds aloft add uncertainty; forecasts trend drier Thursday and Friday before rain chances rise again into the weekend.