Overview

• The Triple Lock for April 2026 will be set using the higher of September inflation or May–July average earnings and will be confirmed in October.
• Recent pay data near 5% suggests the full new state pension could rise by about £599 to roughly £12,572, with the basic rate moving to about £9,634.
• About 6.9 million older retirees on the old system receive SERPS or state second pension elements that increase only with inflation, curbing their overall uplift.
• Experts highlight cohort disparities and a ‘hidden’ shortfall for older pensioners, with the rising headline rate pulling more retirees toward the frozen £12,570 tax threshold.
• Cost pressures and fairness concerns are intensifying, as ministers oversee a DWP review of the state pension age and long‑term sustainability.