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Seven Million Older Pensioners Poised to Miss Full Triple Lock Rise Next Year

Analysts say legacy SERPS elements rise only with inflation, leaving many older claimants with smaller increases than those on the post‑2016 pension.

Overview

  • Earnings growth is outpacing inflation at roughly 4.6–5% versus about 3.8% CPI, pointing to an earnings‑led uplift for April 2026 with the full new state pension projected to rise by about £550–£599.
  • Older retirees on the basic pension will get the triple lock on the basic portion, but the 6.9 million with SERPS/additional pension will see that element increase only by CPI, cutting their overall gain by hundreds compared with newer retirees.
  • Roughly 8.4 million people remain on the old system, with the basic pension estimated at about £9,634 next year versus about £12,524 for the full new pension if current trends persist.
  • The exact uprating will be set using May–July earnings and September CPI, with official figures due in mid‑September and October before rates are confirmed.
  • Rising pension values against a frozen £12,570 personal allowance are pulling more retirees into income tax, sharpening affordability concerns as the DWP conducts a review of state pension age and long‑term arrangements.