Overview
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally adjusted increase of 29,000 nonfarm payrolls for September and an unemployment rate that rose to 4.2%.
- July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, and the household survey showed the labor force and participation rate rose, which helped push the jobless rate up.
- Average hourly earnings slowed to a 0.1% monthly gain and 3.0% year over year, with job gains concentrated in health care, construction and manufacturing while financial activities lost jobs.
- Markets reacted quickly by lowering odds of an October interest-rate increase, with stock futures rising and Treasury yields falling, while economists warned seasonal-adjustment quirks and a late Labor Day likely exaggerated the weakness.
- Layoffs remain low and initial claims near multi-decade lows, but persistent supply constraints, higher energy and trade pressures and slower hiring signal risks that could weigh on job growth in the months ahead.