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Seniors Become Decisive Force in Brazil's Tight Runoff

A surging senior electorate favors Lula because many older voters fear cuts to pensions and healthcare.

Overview

  • Nearly one-quarter of Brazil's electorate is now over 60, making older voters a pivotal bloc in a razor-close presidential runoff.
  • A recent Quaest poll shows Lula leading among seniors about 48% to 42% for Flavio Bolsonaro, a gap campaigns are treating as winnable with turnout pushes.
  • Lula's campaign has launched targeted outreach to the 'Lula generation' to boost senior turnout and convert memories of social gains into votes.
  • Many seniors say fears of reduced pensions, cuts to healthcare, and threats to democratic norms motivate support for Lula while some older voters still back Bolsonaro.
  • Long-term demographic change has grown the senior vote by 74% since 2010 which raises the stakes for turnout and could determine the election outcome.