Overview
- Seniors’ group’s first projection implies a 0.3 percentage-point dip from 2026’s 2.8% COLA.
- At 2.5%, the average retirement benefit would be about $2,123, adding roughly $52 per month.
- Financial experts caution that early estimates often shift because the COLA is based on Q3 inflation readings that are not yet available.
- Analysts warn Medicare Part B premium increases could offset much of any boost, noting a 9.7% rise compared with the 2.8% COLA for 2026.
- Debate over the inflation gauge continues, as using CPI-E instead of CPI-W has been shown to yield higher COLAs in some years, including an estimated lift for 2024.