Overview
- At projected exhaustion dates the Social Security Trust Fund would cover just 81% of scheduled OASI benefits and Medicare HI would cover 89% of promised payouts, the trustees warn.
- The Senate’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act would expand senior deductions and extend tax cuts that reduce benefit taxation by about $30 billion per year, hastening insolvency to late 2032 for Social Security and mid-2032 for Medicare HI, according to CRFB analysis.
- Under the bill’s timelines, Social Security benefits could face an automatic 24% across-the-board cut and Medicare payments an 11% reduction once the trust funds deplete.
- An AEI study warns that immigration crackdowns may cut payroll-tax revenues by up to $27 billion annually by 2034, potentially shifting exhaustion to late 2033 for Social Security and early 2032 for Medicare HI.
- The trustees estimate a 75-year actuarial shortfall of 3.82% of payroll, rising to 4.95% under lower fertility and immigration scenarios, underscoring the need for prompt bipartisan reforms.