Overview

• Under current law the 2025 Trustees report projects Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be depleted in the third quarter of 2034 and pay only 81 percent of benefits thereafter while Medicare’s Hospital Insurance fund is set to exhaust by late 2033 and cover 89 percent of promised payments.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would pull Social Security’s OASI exhaustion forward to late 2032 and Medicare’s HI depletion to mid-2032.
• Expanded senior deductions and reduced taxation of benefits under the Senate bill are projected to cut about $30 billion in annual revenue, hastening insolvency by roughly a year compared with current law.
• Once the OASI trust fund runs dry under the bill, Social Security benefits would face an automatic 24 percent across-the-board cut compared with the 19 percent reduction expected under existing projections.
• Trustees and analysts warn that without bipartisan reforms to raise revenues or adjust benefit rules, retirees will face deep automatic reductions that could exacerbate financial hardship.