Overview
- Senators will vote Thursday on Democrats’ three-year extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and the Republican Crapo–Cassidy HSA-based alternative, with both expected to fall short of the filibuster threshold.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson says the House will not take up a straight extension and plans a GOP package next week, as Republicans remain divided and some moderates weigh discharge petitions to force a limited renewal.
- President Trump has voiced support for directing funds to individuals, aligning with the Crapo–Cassidy plan to provide one-time HSA deposits of $1,000 for people 18–49 and $1,500 for those 50–64, with restrictions on abortion and gender-transition care.
- Analysts and state exchanges project steep consequences if the enhancements lapse, including average premium increases exceeding 100% for subsidized enrollees and millions losing coverage, with Covered California detailing sharp hikes for middle‑income buyers.
- Republicans point to Government Accountability Office findings of systemic fraud risk in the current subsidy system to justify structural changes, further clouding prospects for a quick bipartisan fix as open enrollment continues.