Overview
- The Senate will vote Thursday on Democrats’ three-year extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits and on the Republican Crapo–Cassidy HSA-style replacement, with both measures unlikely to clear the 60-vote hurdle.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson said the House will bring a Republican package to the floor next week that excludes a straight renewal, as some moderates explore discharge petitions to force an extension vote.
- Nonpartisan and academic analyses project average premium increases of roughly 100% for subsidized enrollees in 2026 and millions losing coverage if the enhancements expire, affecting roughly 22–24 million people.
- The Crapo–Cassidy bill would let the enhanced credits lapse and deposit $1,000–$1,500 into HSA-style accounts for people in bronze or catastrophic plans while restricting funds for abortion and gender-affirming care.
- State marketplaces warn of steep hikes and coverage losses, with Covered California saying premiums could nearly double for many enrollees and reminding residents that open enrollment runs through January 31, 2026.