Overview
- Roughly 22 to 24 million marketplace enrollees could see sharp cost increases in 2026 if the enhanced tax credits end, with independent analyses projecting average premiums more than doubling and millions losing coverage.
- The Senate will vote Thursday on Democrats’ three-year extension of the subsidies and on the Republican Crapo–Cassidy plan that would deposit $1,000 for adults 18–49 and $1,500 for those 50–64 into health savings accounts while expanding catastrophic options and restricting funds for abortion or gender transition care.
- President Donald Trump has voiced support for redirecting assistance to individuals through HSA-style accounts rather than continuing enhanced payments tied to exchange plans.
- Speaker Mike Johnson says the House will not bring a straight extension to the floor and is preparing a GOP package for next week that excludes a clean renewal, as moderates pursue bipartisan frameworks and consider discharge petitions.
- State marketplaces warn of outsized impacts, with Covered California projecting premiums nearly doubling and steeper increases for Latino and Black enrollees, and some experts caution that HSA replacements could destabilize ACA exchanges.