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Senate Sets ACA Subsidy Vote With GOP Split on Alternatives as Collins–Moreno Unveil Two-Year Plan

Analysts warn the year-end lapse would sharply raise premiums, pushing many off coverage.

Overview

  • Senators plan a Thursday vote on Democrats’ clean three-year extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, a measure expected to fall short of the 60 votes needed in a GOP-controlled chamber.
  • Republicans have not united behind a single counterproposal, weighing options from income caps and fraud curbs to routing funds into Health Savings Accounts backed by President Donald Trump and Sen. Bill Cassidy.
  • Sens. Susan Collins and Bernie Moreno introduced a two-year plan that adds a $200,000 income cap and a $25 minimum monthly payment, diverging from GOP colleagues pushing HSA conversions and abortion-funding restrictions.
  • In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson says Republicans will bring forward a proposal, as a 35-member bipartisan group promotes a CommonGround 2025 framework with a one-year extension, income limits, anti-fraud measures, and a longer enrollment window.
  • A KFF survey finds one-quarter of marketplace enrollees are very likely to go uninsured if enhanced aid expires, with projections of premiums more than doubling in 2026 and a CBO estimate of 3.8 million more uninsured later in the decade.