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Senate Reopens Government, Pushes ACA Subsidy Decision to December as 2026 Costs Loom

Marketplaces enter open enrollment with many plans priced on the assumption the enhanced tax credits will lapse.

Overview

  • Health insurer shares fell after President Trump called ACA subsidies a windfall for insurers and urged sending funds directly to individuals, with Centene down about 7% and declines across UnitedHealth, Elevance and Molina.
  • KFF projects average out-of-pocket premiums for subsidized enrollees could rise about 114% in 2026 if the enhanced credits expire, while extending them would save the average enrollee roughly $1,016 next year.
  • Insurers have filed sizable 2026 rate increases, with a median proposed hike around 18%, and many have priced plans assuming the expanded credits end, complicating consumer choices during open enrollment.
  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates extending the subsidies would cost about $35 billion per year, and that expiration would leave roughly 4 million more people uninsured by 2034.
  • Analysts say expiration would hit Republican-leaning Southern states hardest and could drive millions—especially small business owners, older adults and healthier enrollees—out of Marketplace coverage.