Overview

• Internal SLF slides obtained by Punchbowl News warn that safeguarding Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary will require between $25 million and $70 million in spending.
• SLF projects that defending Attorney General Ken Paxton in a general election could demand $200 million to $250 million, pushing GOP outlays to nearly $300 million if he secures the nomination.
• Private and public polling from January through June shows Paxton leading Cornyn by as much as 17 points among primary voters despite Paxton’s legal controversies and a recent divorce.
• Cornyn holds a fundraising advantage but struggles with low favorability and a perception among primary voters of being insufficiently conservative.
• Democrats point to shifting demographics and past close statewide races, viewing the costly intra-GOP battle and Paxton’s polarizing image as a clear path to flip the Texas seat in 2026.