Overview
- Senate negotiators are preparing a merged CLARITY Act draft expected the week of July 13–17 and House backers are pressing leadership for a July floor vote to finish work before the August recess.
- Key sticking points blocking a deal are enforceable ethics language tied to President Trump’s crypto disclosures, developer noncustodial safe harbors, and contested stablecoin and anti-money‑laundering provisions.
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig and industry figures including Coinbase leaders and reported support from JPMorgan are urging quick passage, saying statutory clarity is needed to prevent regulators from writing rules by default.
- Procedural hurdles remain large because sponsors must merge competing committee texts and win roughly 60 votes for cloture, and prediction markets have cut short‑term passage odds to about 39–45 percent.
- If Congress does not act, agencies such as the SEC and CFTC could proceed with rulemaking that would shape market access for banks, pension funds, exchanges, and ordinary users seeking clearer custody and compliance rules.