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Senate Debates Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill as White House Forecasts $2.3 Trillion Deficit Reduction

Senators are revising tax cuts, spending reductions, Medicaid reforms ahead of a July 4 deadline based on a contested CEA report forecasting growth-driven savings

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise speaks during his weekly press conference at the Capitol on June 24, 2025, in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • The CEA analysis projects a $2.1‒$2.3 trillion deficit reduction over ten years driven by economic growth from the bill’s permanent tax cuts.
  • That report also estimates $8.5‒$11.1 trillion in additional deficit reduction from Trump administration policies on discretionary spending and tariffs.
  • The White House foresees a 4.6%‒4.9% GDP boost in the first four years and $4,000‒$7,200 higher annual real wages per worker.
  • Independent scores from the CBO, Tax Foundation and Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget warn the legislation could add $2.4 trillion in deficits or cut revenue by up to $4.7 trillion.
  • Senate Republicans are negotiating tax, spending and Medicaid reforms under a July 4 deadline in preparation for finalizing the reconciliation package.