Overview

• Johnson’s 31-page analysis projects a $24.1 trillion ten-year deficit under 1.8% GDP growth and shows higher growth rates still leave a shortfall above $20 trillion.
• He criticizes the White House’s reliance on trillions in tariff revenue, citing legal challenges and recessionary risks to sweep tariffs.
• Johnson proposes cutting federal spending by 14.6% from 2026 to 2034—returning outlays to pre-pandemic levels adjusted for inflation and population growth—to balance the budget by 2034.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune disputes the Congressional Budget Office’s deficit projections, arguing that stronger economic growth will erase the added shortfalls.
• Senate Republicans are racing to refine the reconciliation bill before the July 4 recess, and Johnson has threatened to sink the measure without deeper spending reductions.