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SEIA/WoodMac Warn U.S. Solar Could Miss 55 GW by 2030 Under Trump Policies

The industry’s Q3 outlook ties project risk to Interior permitting changes, with tax-law rollbacks chilling new factory investment.

An aerial view shows rows of solar panels at a solar farm in Anson, Texas, U.S., April 23, 2025. REUTERS/Daniel Cole/File Photo

Overview

  • SEIA and Wood Mackenzie project a 55 GW shortfall in U.S. solar deployment by 2030 versus pre‑HR1 forecasts.
  • The report’s low case says Interior Department permitting changes threaten roughly 44 GW of planned projects, with Arizona, California and Nevada most affected.
  • Reuters’ readout highlights a risk of installing 27% less capacity during 2026–2030 following the tax-law rollback.
  • The sector added nearly 18 GW in the first half of 2025, with solar plus storage providing about 82% of new U.S. power capacity in that period.
  • Domestic module capacity rose by 13 GW to 55 GW in H1 2025, yet Q2 saw no new upstream manufacturing investment due to policy uncertainty.