Security Overtakes Economy After Deadly Rio Raid, Halting Lula’s Polling Gains

Overview

• A Rio police operation described as the country’s deadliest left 121 people dead and propelled public security to the top concern for 38% of respondents in a Genial/Quaest poll.
• Analysts link the security spike to a pause in President Lula’s recent recovery, with Genial/Quaest showing his approval still trailing disapproval by three points.
• Despite joblessness at a historic 6.2% and 12‑month inflation near 4.7%, elevated food costs earlier in the year and persistent price pressures are weighing on perceptions.
• UBS economist Solange Srour estimates consumer prices have risen about 38% since 2019, while CNC data indicate 31% of families carry debt they cannot pay.
• The government is promoting an income‑tax exemption to argue tax fairness, as right‑leaning leaders rally around a security agenda that puts Lula on the defensive.