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Secret 2024 Deficit Warning Letter Surfaces in France as Government Insists 2025 Target Holds

Opposition figures call it proof of budget insincerity, with Le Maire now conceding severe forecasting mistakes.

Overview

  • A classified note dated April 6, 2024 from then‑economy minister Bruno Le Maire warned of collapsing tax receipts, urged a supplemental budget law and roughly €15 billion in savings, and aimed to cap the 2024 deficit at 4.9% of GDP.
  • France’s 2024 public deficit ultimately came in far higher at about 5.8% of GDP, reflecting an unexpected shortfall in tax revenues of roughly €40–42 billion.
  • La France insoumise and the Rassemblement National accuse the executive of an “omission d’État,” alleging the budget presented to lawmakers was insincere and claiming the 2024 European elections’ integrity was affected.
  • Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon says the deficit is on track for 2025 at 5.4% of GDP, and a year‑end budget text presented Monday confirms the unchanged forecast and a 0.4‑point reduction versus 2024.
  • Le Maire publicly acknowledges major forecasting errors on receipts (“we got it wrong, big time”); current economy minister Roland Lescure says he was unaware of the letter, which parliamentary investigators say they reviewed.