Overview
- ECMWF and NOAA CFS guidance for winter 2025/26 shows warmer‑than‑average conditions across much of Western and Central Europe with below‑normal snow odds, while Scandinavia and the Baltics show slightly higher probabilities.
- Potential triggers for cold outbreaks include Sudden Stratospheric Warming that weakens the polar vortex, a slightly negative QBO, a possible La Niña phase and early Siberian snow cover.
- Analyses point to a regional split, with northern and eastern Europe more vulnerable to periodic cold and heavy snow and western regions more likely to remain under milder Atlantic influence.
- Research highlights a climate paradox in which overall winters warm yet rare cold events can intensify due to altered circulation and greater atmospheric moisture supporting heavier snowfall.
- Commentators warn that energy, transport and local emergency planning remain poorly prepared for a prolonged deep freeze, making a rare 'century winter' high impact even if unlikely.