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Sean Payton’s Pre-Draft Doubts About Caleb Williams Surface as Broncos Rally Behind Bo Nix

Seth Wickersham’s book reveals Payton used a negative-play formula to question WilliamsNFL readiness.

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Jul 24, 2025; Lake Forest, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) signals during training camp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Overview

  • Excerpts from American Kings show Payton praised Williams’ arm talent but worried his processing speed would lead to missed reads and negative plays.
  • Payton’s evaluation method weights college negative plays such as sacks and risky throws, assigning Williams a higher risk score than both Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels.
  • Williams, the Bears’ 2024 No. 1 pick, finished his rookie season with 3,541 passing yards, six interceptions and an NFL-leading 68 sacks as Chicago went 5-12.
  • Nix, selected 12th by Denver, completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns while guiding the Broncos to a 10-7 record and a playoff berth.
  • Payton’s public endorsement of Nix as a top quarterback for 2025 underscores Denver’s conviction in its draft strategy and reignites debate over the predictive power of pre-draft metrics.