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Scrapping Lifetime ISA Would Cost Taxpayers £3 Billion, New Analysis Finds

A surge in withdrawal penalties is intensifying calls to reform the scheme’s frozen £450,000 house‑price cap.

Overview

  • CBI Economics and Moneybox estimate the Lifetime ISA returns £1.45 in tax for every £1 of government bonus and warn abolition would cost about £3bn by 2041.
  • HMRC reports 1.34 million accounts were open by end‑2023/24, with 56,900 first‑home purchases using the scheme that year and 227,600 since launch.
  • Early withdrawals facing the 25% charge jumped to 99,700 in 2023/24, with penalties rising to £75.3m from £5.3m in 2018/19.
  • Skipton Group forecasts that by late 2027 average first‑time buyer prices in 10% of local authorities will exceed the £450,000 eligibility cap.
  • The Treasury Select Committee has questioned value for money and distributional effects, while the government says the product helped about 57,000 buyers in the last year.