Scottish Labour Faces Historic Low in Upcoming Holyrood Election, Poll Suggests

Support for Scottish Labour has plummeted, with projections showing the SNP poised to retain dominance and a pro-independence majority likely.

A new Norstat poll indicates Scottish Labour is set for its worst performance since devolution, with only 18% of the constituency vote projected for the 2026 Holyrood election.
The SNP is predicted to secure 55 seats, with the Greens gaining 10, forming a narrow pro-independence majority despite less than half of voters backing pro-independence parties.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is expected to gain 15 seats, fracturing the unionist vote and drawing support from Labour, Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats.
Scottish Labour's decline is attributed to dissatisfaction with UK Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is rated poorly among Scottish voters, including those who supported Labour in the 2024 general election.
Anas Sarwar's leadership struggles to counteract Westminster's negative impact, as Labour's conference in Glasgow seeks to refocus attention on SNP governance and public services.