Scientists Warn of Potentially Unprecedented El Niño

Overview

• Multiple forecasting centres and observational panels report Niño 3.4 sea‑surface temperature anomalies already far above normal and model ensembles that project peaks above 3°C later this year.
• Scientists say the event is expected to strengthen toward an October–November 2026 peak and to persist into early 2027, which typically amplifies global mean temperature the year after the oceanic peak.
• Local authorities are already activating plans: Rio de Janeiro set up a state committee and launched the 'Programa Antecipar e Reagir' after reporting low humidity, drought signs, strong winds and a year‑on‑year rise in July fires.
• Sectoral guidance is being issued for at‑risk livelihoods and services, with Brazil’s Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture advising fishers and aquaculture operators to monitor forecasts, coordinate with authorities and report damages through official channels.
• Researchers caution that while human‑forced warming can amplify El Niño impacts, there is no scientific consensus that climate change is making El Niño events systematically stronger and experts urge close monitoring of regional rainfall, fire and flood risks.