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last mo.

Scientists Warn 1.5°C Paris Target Will Be Surpassed as Emissions and Sea Levels Surge

A new climate assessment finds only three years of CO2 emissions remain to limit warming, with global sea levels now rising at double the century-long rate.

Image
A Jammu, en Inde, le 15 juin 2025.
Le monde s’est déjà réchauffé de 1,52°C par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle (dont 1,36°C attribuable aux activités humaines).
Un thermomètre indique une température de 37°C à Rennes, dans l'ouest de la France, le 11 juin 2025

Overview

  • The 2024 global temperature averaged 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, marking the first time a single year topped the 1.5°C threshold under the Paris Agreement.
  • Human activities accounted for 1.36°C of this increase, with natural variability and El Niño contributing the remainder.
  • The updated carbon budget has shrunk to roughly 130 billion tonnes of CO2—just over three years at current emission levels—to keep warming below 1.5°C.
  • Global sea levels rose 26 mm between 2019 and 2024, accelerating at twice the pace measured since 1901.
  • Six months before COP30 in Brazil, scientists call for rapid and sustained greenhouse gas cuts to mitigate further warming and sea-level rise.