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Scientists Tie Indonesia’s Devastating Fires to El Niño and Human-Driven Heat

A World Weather Attribution analysis found human-caused warming raised seasonal temperatures by about 1.6°C, greatly increasing the chance of extreme fire weather.

A drone view shows an orangutan hanging from a tree in a palm-oil plantation affected by wildfires before being rescued in Laman Satong village, Ketapang Regency, West Kalimantan, Indonesia, September 30, 2026. REUTERS/Victor Fidelis Sentosa
University students take part in a protest against Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's policies and the government's handling of wildfires in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 10, 2026. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana
University students take part in a protest against Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's policies and the government's handling of wildfires in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 10, 2026. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana
A woman holds a placard as university students take part in a protest against Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's policies and the government's handling of wildfires in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 10, 2026. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

Overview

  • Widespread fires from August to October 2026 burned almost 2.88 million hectares in Indonesia, producing transboundary haze that sickened hundreds of thousands and worsened air quality across Southeast Asia.
  • World Weather Attribution researchers concluded a very strong El Niño cut rainfall sharply while human-driven warming added roughly 1.6°C to seasonal heat and tripled the likelihood and intensity of fire-prone conditions.
  • Decades of deforestation and drained peatlands made large areas highly flammable and allowed long‑lasting smouldering peat fires that prolonged smoke and emissions.
  • The independent Nusantara Atlas monitor released the updated burned-area figure but the Indonesian government has not confirmed that total or published its own nationwide estimate since July.
  • Scientists and aid groups are urging peatland restoration, higher water tables, reduced deforestation, and advance planning for predictable El Niño years to cut future fire risk and protect public health.