Overview
- The multi‑author Indicators of Global Climate Change report published June 10, 2026, projects global mean warming will pass 1.5°C above pre‑industrial levels in about four years if current emission rates continue.
- Global CO2 emissions hit a record 56.8 billion tonnes in 2024 and atmospheric concentrations reached new highs in 2025 with CO2 at 425.6 ppm, methane at 1936.3 ppb, and nitrous oxide at 339.4 ppb.
- Researchers estimate the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget was about 130 gigatonnes of CO2 at the start of 2026 and will be exhausted in roughly three years at present emission rates, with a 1.7°C budget lasting about 12 years.
- The report finds the Earth's energy imbalance is at a record high, heat is building in the ocean and atmosphere, and impacts are accelerating, including 23 cm of sea‑level rise since 1901 and 65 days of marine heatwaves in 2025 that harm coastal communities and ecosystems.
- Scientists note early signs that emissions growth may be slowing because of higher oil prices, more electric vehicles, and expanding renewables, but they say these changes are too small to prevent the near‑term breach and call for faster, deeper cuts to limit damage.