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3d ago

Scientists Say RCP8.5 Worst‑Case Emissions Scenario Is Now Implausible

The reassessment forces researchers and planners to revise past analyses because more likely mid‑range pathways still point to about 3°C of warming that will cause major harms.

Image
Workers check a solar panel on the production line at the ReNew manufacturing plant near Jaipur, India.
A pumpjack operates in the foreground while wind turbines at the Buckeye Wind Energy wind farm rise in the distance, near Hays, Kansas, Sept. 30, 2024.

Overview

  • A multi‑author modelling study published in April concluded that RCP8.5, the extreme 'worst‑case' emissions pathway, has become implausible according to lead author Detlef van Vuuren.
  • RCP8.5 was designed as a stress test that required an unprecedented fivefold rise in coal use by 2100 rather than a forecast of the most likely future, which helps explain why it now looks unlikely.
  • Updated calibrations show the world is tracking nearer to a mid‑range pathway (RCP4.5) that could bring roughly 3°C of warming by 2100 and still produce severe heat, ecosystem loss, and threats to food and water systems.
  • The study also finds that the previously modelled best‑case pathway (RCP2.6), which aligns with keeping warming under 2°C, may be difficult to reach without large‑scale carbon removal.
  • The finding has prompted calls to recheck research, regulations, and infrastructure plans that used RCP8.5 and has sharpened public debate after a mid‑May social‑media post by President Donald Trump increased media attention.