Overview
- Scientists formally retired RCP8.5 and removed it from the set of scenarios that will feed into the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report.
- RCP8.5 was a no‑policy 'worst‑case' stress test that assumed large coal expansion and a much higher population, and authors said falling clean‑energy costs, stronger climate policy, and recent emissions trends make that future implausible.
- Thousands of past impact studies used RCP8.5 as a default, creating a near‑term need for researchers, regulators, and planners to reassess methods and baselines tied to that pathway.
- Independent trackers still estimate roughly 2.5–3°C of warming by 2100 under current policies, so retiring RCP8.5 does not remove the risk of major climate impacts.
- The update was quickly politicized, including a claim by President Donald Trump that projections were 'wrong', and scientists have emphasized the retirement reflects changed emissions trajectories rather than errors in climate science.