Scientists Predict Next Ice Age in 10,000 Years, But Human Activity Likely Delays It

New research deciphers Earth's glacial cycles, revealing predictable patterns disrupted by greenhouse gas emissions.

Researchers identified a predictable pattern in Earth's ice age cycles over the past 900,000 years, driven by orbital changes including precession, obliquity, and eccentricity.
Without human influence, the next ice age would likely begin in approximately 10,000 years, following the natural rhythm of glacial and interglacial periods.
Human-induced carbon emissions have disrupted this natural cycle, making a transition to a glacial state in 10,000 years highly improbable.
The study resolves long-standing questions about the 100,000-year glacial cycle and confirms that Earth's climate changes are largely deterministic rather than random.
Researchers aim to use this natural baseline to better quantify the long-term impacts of human-driven climate change and guide future policy decisions on greenhouse gas emissions.