Overview
- An ETH Zurich–led study in Nature Climate Change analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers using satellite inventories and three glacier models to estimate disappearance timelines under different warming paths.
- Researchers define a peak year when annual glacier losses are highest, projecting about 2,000 disappearances around 2041 at 1.5°C and roughly 4,000 per year in the 2050s at 4°C.
- The Alps are a pronounced hotspot, with more than half of small glaciers projected to vanish between 2033 and 2041 and only about 110 remaining by 2100 at ~2.7°C, falling to around 20 at 4°C.
- The current rate of roughly 1,000 extinctions per year could double even if warming is limited to 1.5°C, the study finds.
- Projected survivors by 2100 diverge sharply, with about 100,000 glaciers at 1.5°C versus roughly 18,000 at 4°C, highlighting risks to water supplies, tourism and cultural heritage.