Overview

• Earth is no longer threatened by 2024 YR4, but current models show a small probability of a Moon impact on December 22, 2032.
• The new preprint by researchers including NASA outlines three paths: a reconnaissance flyby, kinetic disruption between April 2030 and April 2032, and a nuclear disruption option from late 2029 to late 2031.
• Modeling indicates a lunar strike could loft ejecta that temporarily raises micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit up to 1,000 times background levels, posing risks to spacecraft and astronauts while not altering the Moon’s orbit.
• Wide uncertainty in the asteroid’s mass—estimated between roughly 51 million and over 711 million kilograms—complicates precise deflection and creates risk of an unintended trajectory change without better measurements.
• Researchers highlight a key reconnaissance opportunity by 2028 to refine properties, note mission build times of five to seven years, and face legal and geopolitical concerns raised by critics over any nuclear option in space.