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3w ago

Science Study Ties USAID’s 2025 Shutdown to Persistent Violence Increases in Africa

Researchers say the no-notice pullback removed support networks that had deterred violence.

FILE - A man walks past a closed clinic run by WITS Reproductive Health Institute (RHI) as a sign on the gate reads "USAID has served the WITS RHI Key Populations Programme a notice to pause programme implementation. As of Tuesday, 28 January, we are unable to provide services until further notice." in Johannesburg, South Africa, Feb. 27, 2025. (AP Photo/Themba Hadebe, File)
FILE - The American flag flying alone beside an empty flagpole that previously had the flag of the U.S. Agency for International Development, or USAID, are pictured in the reflection of a window that previously had the sign and the seal of USAID, outside the agency's headquarters in Washington, Feb. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana, File)
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Overview

  • The peer-reviewed Science study, released Thursday, links President Trump’s 2025 dissolution of USAID to higher conflict in African areas that had relied most on its programs after more than 90% of contracts were cut, roughly $60 billion.
  • Researchers report a 10% jump in protests and riots, a 10.6% rise in conflict events, a 6.9% uptick in battles, and a 9.3% increase in battle deaths in high-exposure regions, plus a 6.5 percentage-point higher chance of any conflict event.
  • The team matched geolocated aid records from the Geocoded Official Development Assistance Dataset with conflict reports from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project and found no split in trends between high- and low-exposure regions before the shutdown.
  • The authors caution they are measuring the shock from a sudden, sweeping cut rather than proving that more aid always lowers violence, pointing to lost wages and services that raised the appeal of fighting while valuable assets left in place still drew competition.
  • Experts warn of cascading fallout that reaches beyond Africa, citing modeling that estimates 762,000 preventable deaths so far and national-security risks such as Houthi fighters seizing discarded USAID supplies, along with allied donors pulling back their own aid.