Overview

• Using Indian Meteorological Department daily data from 1901–2020, the study finds fewer light and moderate rains during El Niño summers but more very heavy days.
• Across monsoon-affected regions, the chance of a very heavy downpour rises about 43% in El Niño summers and about 59% in the Central Monsoon Zone.
• Increases in extremes concentrate in central India and the southwestern coastal band, whereas the southeast and northwest see decreased likelihood.
• El Niño’s effect on average summer rainfall has weakened in recent decades, yet its influence on extremes has persisted with some regional shifts.
• Researchers link the pattern to changes in convective buoyancy and low-pressure system tracks, and CCNY notes a new three-year $408,862 NSF grant to probe the mechanisms.