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2w ago

Science Analysis Links U.S. Overdose Decline to Mid-2023 Fentanyl Supply Shock

Researchers say converging indicators point to a supply disruption plausibly tied to Chinese precursor curbs.

FILE - This undated file photo provided by the U.S. Attorneys Office for Utah and introduced as evidence at a trial shows fentanyl-laced fake oxycodone pills collected during an investigation. Accidental overdoses contribute to 90 percent of all U.S. opioid-related deaths. Rising use of illicitly manufactured and highly potent synthetic opioids including fentanyl has likely contributed to the unintentional death rate, which surged nine-fold between 2000 and 2017, the study found. (U.S. Attorneys Office for Utah via AP, File)
A "major disruption in the illicit fentanyl trade, possibly tied to Chinese government actions," may have caused a drop in overdose deaths.
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Data: CDC; Chart: Axios Visuals

Overview

  • The annual rate of fentanyl overdose deaths fell by more than one-third from mid-2023 to the end of 2024, breaking a decades-long rise.
  • The Policy Forum synthesizes CDC mortality data, DEA signals on potency and seizures, and Reddit reports of a 'drought' to argue that a drop in fentanyl strength drove the decline, with parallel indicators reported in Canada.
  • The authors propose Chinese crackdowns on precursor chemicals as a plausible upstream cause but emphasize that direct attribution remains limited.
  • Analysts note uneven geography, including declines that began earlier in parts of the western United States, indicating the supply-shock hypothesis does not capture all regional trends.
  • Experts caution the effect could prove temporary and urge using the current window to expand prevention, treatment, and harm-reduction rather than relying on mass street-level enforcement.