Overview

• Adam Schiff leads the California Senate race with 28% of likely voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward supporting him.
• Republican Steve Garvey follows Schiff with 19% of likely voters, while Democrats Katie Porter and Barbara Lee are in a statistical tie for third place.
• Garvey's rise in the polls is notable given his minimal campaign presence and limited public appearances since declaring his candidacy in October.
• The race for second place is critical as it will determine whether the November election will be a contest between two Democrats or a red-versus-blue contest.
• The candidates have expressed few differences on policy, but the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has been a point of divergence.