Overview

• Nawrocki has maintained a near-even split in voter support, trailing Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski by just one percentage point in recent aggregated polls ahead of the June 1 runoff.
• Allegations against Nawrocki range from ties to organized crime and prostitution at a Baltic Sea hotel to a disputed apartment transfer in Gdańsk, all of which he denies and has vowed to legally challenge.
• Prime Minister Donald Tusk has accused the Law and Justice party of endorsing an unfit nominee, while PiS figures have sought to implicate Trzaskowski in longstanding municipal scandals.
• Analysts warn that a Nawrocki victory would empower PiS to block Tusk’s court reforms, curb Poland’s influence in Brussels and exacerbate domestic polarization.
• Trzaskowski, backed by Civic Platform, campaigns on a pro-EU platform to restore Poland’s standing in the bloc, contrasting with Nawrocki’s nationalist, “Trumpist” diplomatic approach.