Overview
- The State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee, which meets Monday, will review the 10.5% policy rate.
- Major brokerages including Arif Habib Limited and JS Global expect the central bank to hold steady, citing a preference for caution until global risks clear.
- A new Topline Securities poll shows 53% of participants now expect a rate hike, reflecting concern over persistent Middle East tensions and higher oil.
- Short-term market rates have moved above the policy rate, with six‑month T‑bills near 11.22% and six‑month KIBOR around 11.44%, signaling some expectation of tighter policy.
- Analysts flag a temporary CPI rise later in FY26 from energy pass‑through and base effects, while others warn that hiking now could overcorrect and strain borrowers even as external buffers and reserves improve.