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SBI Puts India’s Q2 GDP Near 7.5% as Forecasts Cluster in 7–7.5% Range

Official figures on November 28 will test nowcasts that attribute the quarter’s strength to GST‑driven festive demand.

Overview

  • State Bank of India nowcasts real GDP growth of about 7.5% for Q2 FY26, citing stronger investment, improving rural consumption and GST rationalisation lifting festive spending.
  • An Economic Times poll of 12 economists pegs growth at a 7.3% median for the quarter, while the Reserve Bank of India projects about 7%.
  • ICRA estimates GDP growth at 7.0% and GVA at 7.1%, with industry leading at roughly 7.8% as services ease and agriculture remains subdued near 3.5%.
  • High‑frequency data show an industrial upswing, with IIP averaging 4.1% and manufacturing output up 4.9%, while merchandise exports rose about 8.8–8.9% year on year on front‑loaded US‑bound shipments.
  • Fiscal support moderated as central capital outlays grew around 30–31% on a high base and some state capex contracted, with the NSO set to release official Q2 GDP on November 28.