Overview

• An Economic Times poll of 14 economists pegs Q1 FY26 GDP growth at a 6.7% median with a 6.3%–7% range, citing robust public capex, firmer rural demand and resilient services.
• SBI Research nowcasts Q1 GDP at 6.8%–7% with GVA around 6.5% and notes the real‑nominal growth gap has narrowed further on low inflation.
• The government’s capital expenditure rose 52% year on year in Q1, reinforcing construction activity even as private capex remains subdued.
• SBI warns US tariffs could weigh on investment and earnings, with bank credit growth slowing to 10% by July 25 and listed firms showing softer revenue and EBITDA growth.
• The National Statistics Office will publish official April–June GDP on August 29, as forecasters broadly see FY26 growth around the mid‑6% range.