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Sberbank’s Gref Predicts Humanoid Robots in 2–3 Years, AGI Within a Decade

His forecast at the Moscow Startup Summit drew a public query from Mayor Sergey Sobyanin about whether AI would replace him.

Overview

  • Herman Gref said humanoid “physical AI” could take over the least-skilled roles within two to three years, citing tasks like street cleaning and basic food service and preparation.
  • He projected the arrival of artificial general intelligence within about ten years and possibly superintelligence that could address long-standing unsolved problems, including seven major mathematical challenges.
  • Gref described the prospective advances as a gigantic challenge for society focused on how to coexist with and govern such systems.
  • He also pointed to potential breakthroughs in new technologies, materials, and transportation that could emerge from these developments.
  • The remarks came during the “Human-centered technologies” plenary at the Moscow Startup Summit in SberCity, where Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin asked if AI would replace him and did not receive a direct answer.