Sberbank Sees Key Rate Near 12% by Late 2026 as It Signals Credit Rebound

Overview

• Sberbank’s baseline assumes Russia’s GDP will expand by roughly 1% in 2026.
• The bank expects inflation pressure to ease toward the target, creating scope for monetary-policy loosening.
• Under this scenario, the Bank of Russia’s key rate could be about 12% by end-2026, presented as a forecast rather than a policy move.
• Corporate lending is projected to rise 9–11% next year, indicating normalization of credit activity with funding markets growing at a comparable pace.
• German Gref delivered the guidance at the “Made in Sber” conference, noting Sber aims to grow broadly in line with the sector.