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Saylor’s Strategy Faces Index-Exclusion Risk as MSCI Weighs Bitcoin Treasury Rule

MSCI's pending decision could trigger large passive outflows, focusing attention on Strategy's Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet.

Overview

  • JPMorgan estimates about $2.8 billion in forced selling if MSCI removes Strategy from its equity indices, with total outflows rising to roughly $9–12 billion if other providers follow.
  • Passive and index-tracking vehicles hold nearly $9 billion of Strategy’s stock, heightening the risk of mechanical selling if eligibility rules change.
  • The consultation targets companies whose digital-asset holdings are at least 50% of total assets, with a decision due January 15, 2026.
  • Strategy’s share price has slumped more than 40% over the past month as its longstanding premium to underlying Bitcoin narrowed toward parity.
  • Michael Saylor says the firm is an operating company rather than a fund, denies selling Bitcoin, highlights continued purchases to 649,870 BTC, and points to new Bitcoin-backed credit and preferred issuances.