Overview
- Saxony’s education ministry, which presented the forecast Tuesday in Dresden, says schools will need about 25,600 teachers by 2040.
- Staffing stays at current levels through the 2031/32 school year, and later cuts will include a buffer so they do not mirror enrolment losses.
- The state statistics office projects roughly 80,000 fewer pupils by 2040/41 from about 440,000 today, a baseline the GEW union calls too low and likely to leave gaps.
- To support teaching quality, the plan adds an extra general-studies lesson in grade 3 next school year, a third PE hour in grade 4 from 2027/28, and from 2028/29 weekly time for one-to-one language help plus a class period for class matters.
- Any school closures will be decided by municipalities, with the minister saying he wants to avoid the broad shutdowns seen around the turn of the millennium.