Overview
- An official regional projection estimates a drop from about 419,250 students today to between 337,450 and 367,500 in the 2040/41 school year.
- Numbers are expected to edge up to 418,600–428,900 through 2027/28 before declining sharply from 2028.
- Primary schools face the steepest proportional losses, with 114,890 to 125,020 pupils projected, equating to as much as a quarter fewer than now.
- The smallest declines are projected for the city and district of Leipzig (about 8.6% and 9.8%), while Erzgebirgskreis could see a drop of up to 28.1%.
- The ministry has enabled measures such as combined classes in some state schools and will prioritize hiring for secondary schools and rural areas, with a detailed teacher-demand forecast due in January.