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Saturday Noon Kickoff: Florida State Favored vs. Pittsburgh as Value Shifts to Panthers +10.5

Previews tip Pittsburgh +10.5 despite Florida State’s status as a double-digit favorite.

Tommy Castellanos #1 of the Florida State Seminoles looks for a receiver in the second quarter of the game against the Miami Hurricanes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on Oct. 4, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida. (Photo by Jason Clark/Getty Images)

Overview

  • Kickoff is set for Saturday, Oct. 11 at 12:00 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, with ESPN carrying the game.
  • Books list Florida State around -10.5 with a total near 57–58, and both Covers and Syracuse’s betting preview flag Pittsburgh +10.5 as the recommended play.
  • Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives Florida State a 72% win probability and projects roughly a 34–24 Seminoles victory.
  • Florida State enters 3–2 (0–2 ACC) on a two-game slide, pairing a top-tier rushing attack near 300 yards per game with concerns over turnovers and execution; the defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown through five games.
  • Pittsburgh arrives off a 48–7 win over Boston College after turning to true freshman Mason Heintschel, who threw for 323 yards and four touchdowns and is set for his first college road start, with a run defense highlighted at 1.7 yards allowed per carry and strong backfield disruption metrics.